By Stanley K. Smith
This e-book specializes in the technique and research of country and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main regular information assets and alertness ideas for 4 different types of projection equipment: cohort-component, development extrapolation, structural versions, and microsimulation. It covers the parts of inhabitants development, assets of information, the formation of assumptions, the improvement of overview standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of assorted projection equipment and will pay unique awareness to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors offer sensible suggestions to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others known as directly to build nation and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing unique populations, special conditions, and insufficient or unreliable facts. They describe ideas for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., university enrollment, households). They speak about the position of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in a global of competing calls for and constrained assets. This accomplished booklet will offer readers with an knowing not just of the mechanics of the main common inhabitants projection equipment, but in addition of the numerous advanced matters affecting their building, interpretation, review, and use.
Read Online or Download A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections PDF
Best demography books
Contemporary examine has referred to as into query the orthodox view that the final centuries of the Roman Republic witnessed a decline of the unfastened rural inhabitants. but the results of the choice reconstructions of Italy's demographic background which were proposed have by no means been explored systematically.
Examines the talk on how inhabitants development impacts nationwide economies and synthesizes present learn at the subject. The authors, led through Harvard economist David Bloom, finish that inhabitants age constitution, greater than measurement or progress in step with se, impacts monetary improvement, and that decreasing excessive fertility can create possibilities for financial development if the correct different types of academic, wellbeing and fitness, and labor-market rules are in position.
Oliver Pamp analyzes the possibility and volume of pension reforms from a political-economy viewpoint. it truly is proven that electorate’ personal tastes for or opposed to reforms are inspired through a societies’ demographic improvement, the generosity of its current public pension scheme and its electoral approach. the writer widely studies present formal versions of pension platforms, discusses their advantages and barriers, and develops a three-period overlapping generations version.
Drawing from basic learn reviews in archaeology, old research, literature, and paintings this interdisciplinary examine the background of kid funerary practices and different cars of parental mourning is the one publication of its type. the aim of this paintings is to enquire the ways that funerary behaviors and grieving vary among cultures and throughout time; from prehistory to trendy historical past.
- The Methods and Materials of Demography, Second Edition
- Islam and the Securitisation of Population Policies
- Genocide as Social Practice: Reorganizing Society under the Nazis and Argentina’s Military Juntas
- Too Many People?: Population, Immigration, and the Environmental Crisis
Additional info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
3 Composition Composition refers to the characteristics of the population. For population projections, the most commonly used characteristics are age, sex, race, and ethnicity. These are the characteristics we refer to most frequently in this book. Age is perhaps the most important demographic characteristic because it has such a large impact on so many aspects of life, for individuals as well as for society as a whole. The age structure of a population affects its birth rate, death rate, and crime rate.
Since there will virtually always be errors in one or more of the variables, an error term is sometimes added to the right-hand side of the equation. This error term is often called the residual error or error of closure (Siegel 2002, p. 403). Because the error term is difficult to measure precisely, it is often lumped with one of the other terms in the equation (usually, net migration). The demographic balancing equation is one of the most basic formulas in demography and has a number of uses.
Projection, forecast, and plan: On the future of population forecasting. Journal of the American Planning Association, 50, 208–221. , & Fisher, P. (1984). Population forecasting and local economic planning: The limits on community control over uncertainty. Population Research and Policy Review, 3, 27–50. Keilman, N. (1990). Uncertainty in national population forecasting. Amsterdam: Swets and Zeitlinger. Keyfitz, N. (1972). On future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67, 347–362.
A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith