Get A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population PDF

By Stanley K. Smith

ISBN-10: 9400775504

ISBN-13: 9789400775503

ISBN-10: 9400775512

ISBN-13: 9789400775510

This e-book specializes in the technique and research of country and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main regular information assets and alertness ideas for 4 different types of projection equipment: cohort-component, development extrapolation, structural versions, and microsimulation. It covers the parts of inhabitants development, assets of information, the formation of assumptions, the improvement of overview standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of assorted projection equipment and will pay unique awareness to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors offer sensible suggestions to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others known as directly to build nation and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing unique populations, special conditions, and insufficient or unreliable facts. They describe ideas for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., university enrollment, households). They speak about the position of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in a global of competing calls for and constrained assets. This accomplished booklet will offer readers with an knowing not just of the mechanics of the main common inhabitants projection equipment, but in addition of the numerous advanced matters affecting their building, interpretation, review, and use.​

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Additional info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Example text

3 Composition Composition refers to the characteristics of the population. For population projections, the most commonly used characteristics are age, sex, race, and ethnicity. These are the characteristics we refer to most frequently in this book. Age is perhaps the most important demographic characteristic because it has such a large impact on so many aspects of life, for individuals as well as for society as a whole. The age structure of a population affects its birth rate, death rate, and crime rate.

Since there will virtually always be errors in one or more of the variables, an error term is sometimes added to the right-hand side of the equation. This error term is often called the residual error or error of closure (Siegel 2002, p. 403). Because the error term is difficult to measure precisely, it is often lumped with one of the other terms in the equation (usually, net migration). The demographic balancing equation is one of the most basic formulas in demography and has a number of uses.

Projection, forecast, and plan: On the future of population forecasting. Journal of the American Planning Association, 50, 208–221. , & Fisher, P. (1984). Population forecasting and local economic planning: The limits on community control over uncertainty. Population Research and Policy Review, 3, 27–50. Keilman, N. (1990). Uncertainty in national population forecasting. Amsterdam: Swets and Zeitlinger. Keyfitz, N. (1972). On future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67, 347–362.

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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith

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